Hope rises for oil market stability in Q4 '17

Posted September 26, 2017

Instead, the joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) said it "will continue to monitor other factors in the oil market and their influence on the ongoing market rebalancing process".

Almarzooq noted that the de-stocking process had accelerated in recent months, adding that the most recent data for August 2017 now shows OECD commercial oil inventories around 170 million barrels above the five-year average. The refining margin for making distillate from USA crude oil for November delivery has risen to $25 per barrel up from $19 in late August and $15 in late June.

The IEA on the other hand reported that global oil output fell by 720,000 bpd due to unplanned outages and scheduled maintenance, mainly in non-Opec countries. On Friday, OPEC requested the oil ministers of Libya and Nigeria present their production plans at the meeting in Vienna.

The new price of Brent crude, which is $13.5 excess on each barrel of over 1.8 million barrels produced in the country, also surged the recovery hope for the country's budget.

This potential loss, combined with 1.8 million bpd of output reductions by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers, raised concerns of tighter supply.

Brent on Monday closed up 3.8%, at $59.02 a barrel, its highest settlement since July 2015, while USA crude futures settled almost 23% above this year's low of $42.53 a barrel on June 21.

The price for Brent crude oil was down 1.4 percent as of 9:06 a.m. EDT to $58.16 per barrel.

Shale billionaire Harold Hamm told Bloomberg TV on Friday that forecasts of USA oil production growth are way too optimistic and are distorting global crude prices. The deal was extended in May through March 2018 and signatories have recently indicated a willingness to potentially hold back production through next year.

The planned state visit by Saudi Arabia's king to Russian Federation in early October to discuss further cooperation in oil market rebalancing was noteworthy as well, said Goldman's analysts, who pointed out that the two countries were "critical to future supply management".

Nigeria's oil minister said Friday that the country would be willing to cap its output, albeit at a higher level than it is now producing.

OPEC's production cuts have been met with rising USA shale oil output, which has tempered the rise in U.S. oil prices relative to the increase in Brent futures.

Resurgent production from USA shale oil producers, who use advanced drilling methods, has played a major role in delaying the market rebalancing.

The Iraqi government does not recognise the referendum and has called on foreign countries to stop importing Kurdish crude.

Nine months of output cuts by the group and its friends have certainly contributed to the higher prices. The U.S. government on Wednesday announced a build of 4.6 million barrels for the week ended September 15.