GOP Holds Kansas House Seat As Democrat's Surprise Upset Bid Falls Short

Posted April 21, 2017

"But we're saying: Don't be nervous, don't get lost in a sea of despair, keep the faith, get up, get out there, be bold, be courageous, and do a job and do it well", Lewis continued.

- CIA Director Mike Pompeo's old district gave Romney 62 percent in 2012 and Trump 60 percent in 2016. "Anti-abortion folks are the most reliable source of support in that district". Only 220 eligible voters in Pawnee County lived in that congressional district and 28 percent voted.

The fourth congressional district - like most of the surrounding area in south central Kansas - is rock-solid Republican. Democrats still haven't won an election there since the early 1980s. Thompson, a civil rights attorney with no legislative experience and very little help from the national Democratic Party, wasn't an uber-gifted candidate who could overcome these fundamental barriers.

Estes was first elected state treasurer in 2010. "It's remarkable that Thompson got this close". Approval was at a seven-year high in February after Trump's presidential inauguration, Gallup notes, adding that the April drop "was driven mainly by a loss of support among Republicans, whose approval fell from 50% two months ago to 31% in April".

Because of the deathly pallor that Brownback casts on the Republican party in Kansas, the results of this special election are not terribly instructive as to the current state of public sentiment toward the Republican party as a whole. But other upcoming races could be more indicative. There is no message to be sent when only a quarter of the electorate bothers to vote. In 2018, Republicans will be defending 23 seats that Clinton won. It should have never been on the table, and yet they barely clung onto the seat.

President Donald Trump passed the first test of his ability to hold a Republican majority in Congress Tuesday night when the GOP held off a strong challenger in a special election. Again, this is a traditionally Republican district, and the fact we're even talking about its competitiveness is extraordinary.

"James made this election far closer than any pundit predicted", Gibson said. "Ossoff wins and suddenly every Republican in a swing district is going to be nervous and they will demonstrate their independence".

The National Republican Congressional Committee spent almost $100,000 at the end of the race for ads that called Thompson "too extreme for Kansas" and accused him of supporting "late-term abortions". Previously held by Republican Ryan Zinke, who later joined the Trump administration to be Interior Secretary, the seat will be the focus of Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist, and Libertarian Mark Wick. If the midterm elections were a few weeks away, Republicans would have reason to panic, but they're not.

While Trump won the Wichita-based 4th district overwhelmingly in November 2016, much of that vote had to do with the person he was running against. As a result, they're energized - they will crawl over broken glass.